Abyss Eye Pull Rates: Is Mega Darkrai Worth Chasing?
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Our breakdown of what's actually happening with Abyss Eye pull rates and pricing since release.
Quick nav:
- What Abyss Eye actually is
- Pull rates: what the community's seeing
- The chase cards, ranked
- Should you crack a box or buy singles?
- Box math (is it actually +EV?)
- FAQ
TL;DR: Abyss Eye (M5) dropped in Japan on May 22, and Mega Darkrai ex is dominating both the art and the price charts. The gold MUR has extremely long odds (community estimates land around 1-in-45-to-50 boxes), but the SAR is more attainable. Box math is currently positive based on early pricing. Details below.
What Abyss Eye actually is {#what-it-is}
Abyss Eye is the fifth MEGA Expansion Pack, a Dark/Ghost-leaning set built around Mega Darkrai ex. 118 cards total: 81 in the base numbering, plus 37 AR/SR/SAR/MUR chase cards. Packs are 5 cards for ¥200 MSRP, the same structure as the last few MEGA sets.
The pattern follows the MEGA line since M1: a mascot-tier Mega gets the gold MUR treatment, a handful of SARs carry the real chase weight, and everything else is guaranteed-hit filler.
The English version (Pitch Black) lands July 17. JPN boxes are the only way to hold this product until then, and that window is typically when JPN product commands its biggest premium.
| Release (JPN) | May 22, 2026 |
| Cards | 118 (81 base + 37 chase) |
| Pack price | ¥200 / 5 cards |
| English version | Pitch Black, July 17, 2026 |
| Headliner | Mega Darkrai ex |
Pull rates: what the community's seeing {#pull-rates}
The Pokemon Company doesn't publish official odds. The numbers below are aggregated from box-opening trackers and buyer/reseller reports since launch. Treat them as directional, not confirmed.
| Rarity | Estimated odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| MUR (Mega Darkrai gold) | ~1 in 45–50 boxes | The chase card. Estimates cluster in this range across trackers |
| SAR (any) | ~1 in 6 boxes | Reported range varies, some trackers put it closer to 1-in-3–4 |
| AR / SR | Guaranteed, multiple per box | Every box hits several |
The SAR range is wide because different trackers are working from different, still-small sample sizes this early after release. This section will get updated as more boxes get cracked and the data tightens up.
The MUR odds are more consistent across sources, and that scarcity is the main driver of its launch pricing.
The chase cards, ranked {#chase-cards}
Based on early secondary-market activity. Prices are moving fast this soon after release, so treat this as a snapshot.
| Rank | Card | Rarity | Approx. market price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mega Darkrai ex | MUR (gold) | ¥160,000–200,000+ |
| 2 | Mega Darkrai ex | SAR | ¥75,000–85,000 |
| 3 | Gwynn | SAR / SR | ¥15,000+ |
| 4 | Kasumi's Energy | SAR | ¥8,000–40,000, range varies by source |
| 5 | Muku | SAR | Strong early demand, illustrated by Naoki Saito |
| 6 | Mega Chandelure ex | SAR / SR | Solid mid-tier chase |
| 7 | Mega Zeraora ex | SAR / SR | Playable and collectible crossover appeal |
Two things are driving the MUR's price beyond rarity alone. Darkrai has a loyal following across multiple Pokemon generations, with VSTAR and GX-era Darkrai cards holding value for years. And JPN copies are currently trading above what people expect the English Pitch Black version to command, since collectors who don't want to wait two months are paying for early access.
Should you crack a box or buy singles? {#box-vs-singles}
Depends on the goal:
- Chasing the MUR specifically: buying the single is almost always cheaper than gambling on a box, or several, at roughly 1-in-45-to-50 odds. Run the math before deciding.
- Want the SAR and can handle some variance: a box or two is reasonable. Odds are good enough that it isn't pure lottery territory.
- In it for the opening experience or binder building: boxes make sense regardless of chase-card math, since every box guarantees a stack of ARs and SRs.
There's no single right answer here. If the goal is the cheapest possible path to the gold Darkrai, singles win. If the goal is opening cardboard and seeing what happens, boxes win.
Box math (is it actually +EV?) {#the-math}
Rough math based on current pull-rate estimates and market prices:
- Box cost: approximately ¥6,000
- Weighted expected value per box, blending SAR and MUR odds against current market prices: roughly ¥8,000–13,000, depending on which pull-rate estimate is used
That's a positive expected value on paper, with two caveats:
- Variance is high. EV math evens out over hundreds of boxes, not one or two.
- Prices are moving fast this soon after release. EV calculated today could look different in a month, once the initial premium settles the way it has for every prior MEGA set.
This section will be updated as prices stabilize.
FAQ {#faq}
Is Abyss Eye worth buying right now, or should I wait? If you want it before the English Pitch Black release on July 17, now is the window, since JPN copies are currently commanding a premium tied to that head start. If waiting is fine, prices on both versions typically cool off a few weeks post-release.
How does Abyss Eye compare to the last MEGA set? The pull-rate structure is consistent with the rest of the MEGA line: guaranteed hits every box, one extremely-low-odds gold card, and a handful of SARs. Chase-card pricing is running hotter than average for Abyss Eye so far, mostly driven by Darkrai's name recognition.
Are the pull rates official? No. The Pokemon Company does not publish odds for any set. Every number in this article, and in any article like it, is a community estimate built from tracked box openings.
Should I grade my pulls? If you land the MUR or SAR in good condition, grading is worth considering given the price gap between raw and PSA 10 copies on comparable MEGA-set chase cards. Inspect centering carefully before submitting, since early production runs on new sets sometimes have centering issues.